Comparing past crypto cycles, there is a clear pattern, and Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be near the top right now.
As Bitcoin researcher Dor Shaher pointed out: Twitter Consistent with how the fertilization period progressed in the previous cycle.
Bitcoin price growth after low cycle
Here is a chart from _checkonchain to make it easier to understand how the pattern of the BTC cycle appears.
BTC price growth since low
If you look closely, it becomes clear that there is a fertilization period in the middle of each cycle.
The first cycle is 2011. Here’s How Bitcoin Price Changed:
The marked area on the chart is the correction period where the price shows a clear downtrend. It lasted 51 days.
The following corrections occurred in 2013 as shown in the chart below.
This was not as smooth as before. There have been many drops and rises. It disappeared after 88 days.
2017 is the next year, but it’s not like the others
2017 looks different than all others
As you can see from the chart, not during a specific decline period, but in 2013, Bitcoin sporadically fell by around 30-40%. It lasted a total of 90 days.
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Finally, there is the cycle in which we are now.
The current cycle
Comparing this to the previous year, it is likely that the most recent crash was a mid-cycle fix. It has lasted 70 days so far.
When does the revision period end?
It’s hard to say when the bitcoin price will rise again, but if the mid-cycle theory is correct, we can guess.
The 2010-11 era peaked at 325 days and 2011-2015 peaked at 747 days. 2015-2018 took longer with 1067 days.
From this, each cycle seems longer than the last. The reason is probably because BTC matures as an asset.
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If the pattern is followed, the current cycle must be longer than 1067 days. So it should go on for at least 148 days before peaking at 921 days so far.
Also, each revision period was longer than before. This is likely to be at least 90 days long. This means a few more weeks of downward trajectory.
Currently, Bitcoin seems to be around $32k. Although it has fallen 11% in the last 7 days, some whales appear to be starting to accumulate, which could be a positive sign.
BTC seems to be going down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Could the current downtrend be a mid-cycle correction? Perhaps nothing can be said about that certainty.
If it is indeed a mid-cycle correction and the pattern holds, then Bitcoin is currently not near normal.
Featured image from Unsplash, charts from _checkonchain